Analysis

Gold's decisive break above $3,300/oz this week signals a structural shift, not just a momentum trade. The weekly RSI is elevated but not yet in extreme overbought territory. Key levels to watch: $3,280 support, $3,400 next resistance. A close above $3,350 on heavy volume would be technically significant. We examine the technicals, the macro backdrop, and where prices could go from here.

Global central banks purchased gold at a record pace for the third consecutive year in 2025, according to World Gold Council data. China, India, Turkey, and Poland led buying. This structural demand from sovereign buyers is providing a persistent bid under gold that retail and institutional investors underestimate. We break down who's buying, why, and what it means for the long-term gold thesis.

The average AISC for major gold producers reached $1,380/oz in 2025, up 8% year-over-year. Energy, labour, and permitting costs are all trending higher. This creates a floor under the gold price and argues for continued margin expansion at $3,300/oz — a boon for producers and a structural argument for higher prices. We examine cost trends across major miners.

Renewed BRICS discussions about a commodity trade settlement mechanism backed by gold or a gold-linked currency basket have resurfaced. We examine what's realistic, what's geopolitical posturing, and why even a partial de-dollarization of commodity trade would be a significant long-term catalyst for gold. Analysis based on IMF data, SWIFT transaction flows, and central bank reserve disclosures.

At a 99:1 gold-to-silver ratio, silver has rarely been this cheap relative to gold. Combined with surging industrial demand from the solar and EV sectors, the Silver Institute projects a fourth consecutive annual deficit in 2026. Physical supply is tightening. Keith Neumeyer of First Majestic has publicly argued for a $100+ silver price. We examine the supply/demand case in detail.